“This is how we lift the country up” said Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, fresh from firming up a trade agreement with the United States last month.
Keen to show that Ecuador’s internal armed conflict is not absorbing his focus, Noboa, fast approaching a year since his re-election, is on a trade deal blitz. On Tuesday, the United States also announced it had begun joint military operations with Ecuador to combat drug trafficking inside the country.
On Monday, an Ecuadorian delegation signed a $3 billion deal with the United Arab Emirates. In January, Ecuador was the first country to sign an agreement on sustainable investment with the European Union.
Joselo Andrade Rada, Executive Director of the Ecuadorian Institute of Political Economy, tells Latin America Reports that Noboa’s focus on international trade deals is slowly opening up the Ecuadorian economy to foreign investment, marking the “start of Ecuador’s economic recovery.”
Noboa’s big plans
As gruesome gang-related murders and street violence dominate the headlines, Noboa’s flurry of trade deals is an attempt to clean up his country’s image abroad.
“If we start to show signs of change — political stability, promoting a growing economy that is more integrated in the world — and improve our perception, it is possible the country can progress,” Andrade adds.
But trade deals can only take the Andean nation’s finances so far. In his re-election campaign, Noboa promised sweeping economic progress.
He pledged wider access to university, jobs and career progression for young people. He promised greater financial support for young families and a restructuring of Ecuador’s creaking healthcare system.
To boost the economy, Noboa promised stronger investment in oil exploration, mining and nuclear power. As he fast approaches the anniversary of his re-election, many of these pledges remain unfulfilled.
Falling short
Critics of the president point to areas where he’s falling short, including the healthcare system, opportunities for young people, and energy strategy.
In recent weeks, images of a healthcare system in crisis have been splashed onto the front pages of Ecuador’s newspapers as financial shortfalls of over 100% leave hospitals under-equipped and understaffed. More than 3,500 newly-qualified doctors are working with no fixed income.
Sergio Ruiz, president of ThinkTank Ecuador, describes Noboa’s promises for young people as “short term fixes” that “drain the public finances.” Ruiz says that government-sponsored work programs, such as one unveiled February 26 that promised 160,000 jobs to people under the age of 29, repeatedly fail due to short term contracts.
From there, disaffected by both informal labor and short term formal employment, young people are easily tempted by criminal groups that promise more glamorous incomes and job security he suggested.
“The government is not taking into consideration crime prevention by providing alternatives to young men, to students. They are not providing opportunities in education, sport, culture or employment that stop young people being seduced by gangs,” Ruiz said.
Since setting up an organization to implement a new nuclear strategy in December, progress on Ecuador’s first nuclear reactor has stalled. Andrade sees the realization of any nuclear industry as “very distant due to Ecuador’s countless difficulties when attempting anything so disruptive.” Instead, Andrade believes Noboa ought to focus on oil exploration, what he describes as the nation’s “main source of stability, growth and foreign investment.”
Reversing stalled progress on these policy areas would be “a product and consequence” of ironing out the economy’s structural weaknesses, Andrade says, a gargantuan task that cannot be solved alone by international trade deals.
“We need labor reform, pension reform, the size of the state and its spending to be reduced. We need financial reform that allows Ecuador to integrate fully into the global financial system,” Andrade says.
Armed conflict dominates
Despite stronger macroeconomic indicators, Ruiz says positive economic change “cannot be felt in people’s day-to-day lives.” In fact, the economy is consistently relegated as a priority in polling, superseded by the internal armed conflict, security and crime.
ThinkTank describes 2025 as Ecuador’s most violent year on record, with over 9,000 violent deaths documented. Ruiz says “as long as people feel victims —of violence, extortion, kidnapping —people will be reluctant to say they feel better off under Noboa.”
On Monday, Noboa’s government decreed two-week long curfews in four provinces and extended state of emergencies in nine, as he announced the armed conflict was moving into the “next phase” which would include increased police activity with greater participation from neighbouring countries. Ecuador’s interior minister told people: “Stay in your homes. We are at war.”
Late Tuesday, U.S. Southern Command announced they’d begun military operations alongside Ecuadorian forces inside of the country.
Tackling organized crime is the government’s principal focus and its clear and organized narrative against the gangs wins Noboa support. Beyond security, Andrade says the lack of focus and narrative on the economy is “the most significant problem facing the government.”
“There is no clarity as to where the government’s efforts are directed, or what the country’s north star is.”
Signing trade deals and shaking hands with global leaders may make Noboa’s Instagram feed look glamorous, but a focus on tangible economic improvements is overlooked as the president’s attention is diverted by spiraling violence.
Featured Image: Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa alongside Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahya before singing trade agreement.
Image credit: Daniel Noboa via Instagram
