Bogotá, Colombia – On Sunday, a dramatic confrontation between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Colombian counterpart, Gustavo Petro, captured the world’s attention.
Petro, who turned back two U.S. military flights carrying deported Colombians, was forced to back down after Trump announced retaliatory tariffs and sanctions.
But while the White House lauded Petro’s concessions as a victory, Colombia’s president may seek further confrontations with Trump and try to reshape relations between the two historic allies.
Since its independence, Colombia has been considered one of Washington’s firmest allies in Latin America, with the two nations enjoying close military, political and commercial ties.
This friendship seems to be facing its biggest challenge yet. Petro, a leftist former guerrilla, and Trump, a right-wing billionaire, have little ideological common ground.
Add to this both leaders’ populist tendencies and reputations for impulsive late-night tweeting, and the chances of a confrontation increase.
In Colombia, Trump’s November election victory was met with fears about the country’s relationship with its most important ally.
Concerns included tariffs, migration and aid. All of these fears were vindicated during Trump’s first week in office.
Petro has been scolded domestically for rocking the boat with his rejection of the migrant flights. The leader of a relatively small country on the world stage decided to antagonize Trump while even the world’s most powerful countries attempt to court him.
Sergio Guzmán, Director of Colombia Risk Analysis, explains that Petro likely underestimated Washington’s response.
“In hindsight, I don’t think he expected Trump to be so drastic,” the analyst told Latin America Reports.
With Colombia’s government agreeing late on Sunday to allow the deportation flights, it would seem that Petro had capitulated.
But Guzmán suggests that for Colombia’s president, the dispute may not be over yet.
In a note sent to Colombia Risk Analysis’ clients, Guzmán warned that “Petro is likely to seek new points of confrontation with Trump in international forums.”
As well as migration, there are multiple areas where the two governments could clash, from climate change to record coca cultivation.
Katherin Galindo, a Colombian security analyst, highlighted how Trump threatened Colombia with decertification over coca plantations during his first term and that these have continued to increase since then.
“In his last term, he was kind of threatening Colombia with decertification, because crops were increasing during that time and this [increase] is continuing to happen right now,” Galindo told Latin America Reports.
Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, fuels fears of further disputes between the two nations.
The former Florida Senator has been outspoken in his disapproval of the Colombian president and his relations with Nicolás Maduro, referring to him as “Gustavo Chávez” and blaming him for destabilizing the region.
Colombia’s president has also criticized Washington’s top diplomat, in 2019 calling him the “expression of the most backward sectors of U.S. politics.”
Given these pressure points between Washington and Bogotá, Guzmán believes that Petro might seek to reduce Colombia’s dependence on the U.S..
The obvious option is China, whose ambassador to Colombia told El Tiempo on Sunday that the two nations were enjoying “the best moment for our diplomatic relations.”
Petro’s administration has been courting China for well over a year; in 2023, the two signed a symbolic “strategic partnership” representing their desire for closer relations.
A year later, in October 2024, Colombia and China announced a joint working group under which the two nations are collaborating on plans for the former to accede to the Belt and Road Initiative.
But the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Colombia (AmCham), María Claudia Lacouture, doubted the feasibility of replacing Washington with Beijing.
“To stop buying the products we import… is not a process that happens… ‘overnight’,” Lacouture told Latin America Reports.
She notes that 70% of U.S. goods imported by Colombia are not produced domestically and are used as inputs for industry.
“If we change our supplier, we would have to import these inputs from other countries at higher prices, with the consequence being higher inflation that will affect all Colombians, especially those with lower incomes,” explained Lacouture.
Instead of preparing for the fallout from possible feuds between Trump and Petro, the AmCham President advocated diplomacy and containment.
“The challenge… is to work to build, in a proactive manner, upon the common issues and concerns of the two governments, using dialogue and appropriate diplomatic channels” commented Lacouture.
She believes there is common ground to be found on migration and counter-narcotics initiatives.
Lacouture hopes that, with the involvement of networks of diplomats, congresspeople and business leaders, Bogotá and Washington can “avoid disproportionate decisions that affect millions of citizens in an unfair manner.”
