As Colombia experiences new waves of armed conflict, President Gustavo Petro has increasingly pointed the finger at an unlikely actor: Mexican cartels.
In multiple statements in recent months, the leader has suggested that Mexican groups are the “current boss” of the ELN, that they “give the instructions” to armed groups, and that they control conflict areas through “private armies.”
To investigate the veracity of Petro’s claims, Latin America Reports spoke to experts on transnational links between Mexican cartels and Colombian armed groups.
Petro’s claims come as violence flares in the northeast Catatumbo region, displacing some 50,000 people and killing at least 80, and in the western Cauca department.
Mexican cartel presence in Colombia is not new but the president’s allegations that groups like the National Liberation Army (ELN) are taking orders from them is.
However, the notion of a hierarchical relationship between these criminal organizations is false, according to Elizabeth Dickinson, Senior Colombia Analyst at Crisis Group.
“It’s… not accurate to say that there are Mexican groups on the ground or that they are directing the battle,” said Dickinson.
Instead, the analyst described the dynamic as one of buyers and sellers.
“There’s really no need for Mexican groups to have a presence in Colombia. Instead what they have are business relationships and trusted envoys who organize the purchase of drugs from Colombia,” she explained.
According to Dickinson, these envoys are usually Colombians working for Mexican groups who negotiate on their behalf, agreeing to purchase a certain amount of cocaine at a given quality and price.
Henry Shuldiner, a researcher at crime think tank InSight Crime, also described the relationship as primarily a business one where both parties have a common interest.
“These are two of the, you know, most powerful criminal organizations, arguably, in the world, definitely in the region, that are both interested in the drug trade,” said Shuldiner, referring to the ELN and the Sinaloa Cartel.
While the analysts challenge Petro’s notion of a hierarchical relationship between cartels and Colombian groups, they nevertheless identify links between the armed conflict and Mexican organizations.
Dickinson explained that business agreements to supply cocaine to Mexican cartels create an incentive for Colombian groups to maintain control of certain regions.
Shuldiner echoed this perspective, citing a financial incentive for the conflict.
“They have an interest in securing these routes and this territory and fighting over it with other criminal groups because they want to do business with foreign drug trafficking organizations, simply put,” said the researcher.
But Shuldiner also made clear that while this market incentive may be a component of the violence in Colombia, Petro’s suggestion that it is to blame for the conflict is unfounded.
“It’s very much a reach. To try to blame all of this violence in Colombia specifically on Mexican foreign criminal groups is ridiculous,” he said.
It seems that while Petro’s comments touched on real dynamics in the armed conflict – where groups compete for control of illicit economies that involve Mexican groups as buyers – the notion that these cartels give orders to Colombian groups is untrue.
Featured image description: Gustavo Petro in Catatumbo.
Featured image credit: @infopresidencia via X.
